You're reading The Gambler’s Corner: The MayMac Edition, and I am the writer, ‘The Dean of Mean’ Christian Holmes aka ‘Mr. Supreme’. Today I am going to give my honest opinion if I believe Conor McGregor actually has a shot at beating one of the best boxers of our generation, Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather. I will talk about their styles and how that comes to play in this 12 round boxing match with 8 oz gloves. Also, I will talk about how the lines are changing, and discuss why that may be so. There is going to be a lot of gambling jargon, so for the newbies I'll try to include definitions.
Before I start breaking down all the angles to the fight, I just want to say, I do not encourage anyone to gamble on sports without educating themselves on what they are betting on. The worst thing a gambler can do is bet blindly. So, make an ‘educated investment’. Do the research and know what you are betting on! This applies for every sport, not just boxing or mixed martial arts. Betting blindly is how people go bankrupt. As OLG says, “Know your limit and play within it.”
I think a good way to start this blog off is to compare Conor McGregor’s fighting style to Floyd Mayweather’s. Now as many of you know, Conor McGregor is a mixed martial artist, which means that he does not solely focus his training on boxing (or in MMA terms, his striking). It is known that Conor McGregor is a counter striker. If you watch some of his earlier fights in the UFC, he usually looks to counter his opponent’s strikes with his powerful left hand. McGregor likes to use his powerful striking skills to pick apart and finish his opponents. That has always been one of his areas of strengths, and you could argue that his counter striking won him that second fight against Nate Diaz at UFC 202. But, his tendency to counter his opponent's strikes may not fare well against Floyd Mayweather.
Floyd Mayweather is known as one of the best defensive technical boxers in the history of the sport. He does not initiate the punches. He also looks to counter his opponent's strikes much like McGregor. Unlike McGregor, Mayweather lands enough punches to win him rounds on the scorecard. Whereas, McGregor tries to finish the fight with his powerful left hand. That means that Conor McGregor is most likely going to have to initiate the punching. Which means that McGregor’s cardio and conditioning in the later rounds could be severely affected. Whereas, Mayweather’s cardio and conditioning might not be. Not to mention, since Mayweather is a superb defensive boxer and talented counter striker, McGregor’s efforts at initiating the punches could all be for not. So, in other words, if McGregor has any chance at winning this fight, he is going to have to finish it early, because the longer the fight lingers on, the more the fight favours Floyd Mayweather.
I think another big piece to the puzzle of determining if McGregor has a chance of beating Mayweather and winning the fight, is how he is handling the adjustment from mixed martial arts to boxing. McGregor only got his boxing license not to long ago, and he has only been seriously training boxing for under six months-ish. Yes, he was an amateur boxer and he does have past experience, but that doesn't compare to Floyd Mayweather’s track record in boxing. So, the transition will play a huge part in determining McGregor’s chances at beating undefeated (49-0) Floyd Mayweather. There's no way to gage how that transition is going to go until they fight. Let it also be known, that boxing and mixed martial arts are vastly different. Boxing is an art form. And boxers train their whole lives to master it. It's hard to say that a guy like McGregor is going to come in and ‘rule boxing’ and ‘make boxing his bitch’. In reality, it's like he's a Joe Blow coming in to fight Mike Tyson in his prime. It's a tall task, even if McGregor is one of the best fighters in mixed martial arts. (Which I beg to differ, but that's just like my opinion, man).
I think the thing that gives people hard-ons for Conor McGregor is the guy’s confidence. You gotta think that McGregor knows that he has a tall mountain to climb to beat Mayweather. Mayweather has all the advantages. Mayweather is an undefeated boxing vet. He has beaten many boxers that McGregor’s boxing style will be similar to. Mayweather has never been knocked out, not even by Oscar De La Hoya or Manny Pacquiao. Mayweather has better conditioning and cardio. Mayweather has gone the distance several times. The only thing that McGregor is going to have going for him is that he will be fighting with an unorthodox boxing style. (Usually in boxing there's a formula that fighters have. For example, left jab, right jab, left hook, finished off with a left uppercut. McGregor will most likely bring his mixed martial arts striking style and try to overwhelm Mayweather with that). But still this loveable Irish fucker still thinks he has a chance. In reality, he was the underdog when he fought Jose Aldo, and McGregor knocked him out in 13 seconds of the first round. So, it's not like he hasn't overcome the odds before, but the big difference between that fight and this fight is that McGregor was an experienced martial artist, whereas he is not an experienced boxer.
And although, McGregor's lines have gone down (in the eyes of the gambler) and up (in his perspective) from +575 to +350 to +300 in the last two months, he still is the massive underdog. In reality and on paper. Mayweather is still a -400 favourite. It's gone down a lot from -650, but he's still a heavy favourite. (A Money Line is a type of betting line which lays out the amount a player must wager in order to win $100.00, or the amount the player wins on a wager of $100.00. There is no point spread or handicap in this line). Even though more of the sharps are putting their fate into McGregor, the vast majority of gamblers are still putting their money on Mayweather. (A ‘sharp’ is someone who is a true handicapper. For starters, a casino or bookmaker can separate the squares from the sharps just by who is placing the wager. A sharp uses gambling as a primary source of income and rarely will place his bet personally. He or she will use a bookie).
So, what do I have to say in all of this? Well, this is what I'm going to leave you guys and gals with… I think McGregor has a fighter’s chance. Odds are Mayweather will probably win the fight, but you never know what can happen. It's a 50/50 chance that McGregor can win. At the end of the day, the odds go out the door when those two step into the ring. Hey, if Jeff Horn, who was a school teacher, can beat one of the best boxers in the world, that being Manny Pacquiao… who says Conor McGregor can't beat Floyd Mayweather?
How would I bet this fight? If you are okay with losing $100, I would say put it on McGregor. Anything can happen, per say. And if McGregor does shock the world and beat Mayweather, you'll be $300 bucks richer. I'd put money on Mayweather, but you'd have to bet a few grand to make it worthwhile. Put it this way, you'd have to bet $900 to make $300, but if Mayweather does easily beat McGregor like many of the experts say he can, that bet might be worth it!
Anyhow, keep tuned to this blog for my OFFICIAL fight winner prediction, and stay tuned to my podcast for more #MayMac talk!
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