The Gambler's Corner: Does Conor McGregor Have A Realistic Shot At Beating Floyd Mayweather?

You're reading The Gambler’s Corner: The MayMac Edition, and I am the writer, ‘The Dean of Mean’ Christian Holmes aka ‘Mr. Supreme’. Today I am going to give my honest opinion if I believe Conor McGregor actually has a shot at beating one of the best boxers of our generation, Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather. I will talk about their styles and how that comes to play in this 12 round boxing match with 8 oz gloves. Also, I will talk about how the lines are changing, and discuss why that may be so. There is going to be a lot of gambling jargon, so for the newbies I'll try to include definitions.

Before I start breaking down all the angles to the fight, I just want to say, I do not encourage anyone to gamble on sports without educating themselves on what they are betting on. The worst thing a gambler can do is bet blindly. So, make an ‘educated investment’. Do the research and know what you are betting on! This applies for every sport, not just boxing or mixed martial arts. Betting blindly is how people go bankrupt. As OLG says, “Know your limit and play within it.”

I think a good way to start this blog off is to compare Conor McGregor’s fighting style to Floyd Mayweather’s. Now as many of you know, Conor McGregor is a mixed martial artist, which means that he does not solely focus his training on boxing (or in MMA terms, his striking). It is known that Conor McGregor is a counter striker. If you watch some of his earlier fights in the UFC, he usually looks to counter his opponent’s strikes with his powerful left hand. McGregor likes to use his powerful striking skills to pick apart and finish his opponents. That has always been one of his areas of strengths, and you could argue that his counter striking won him that second fight against Nate Diaz at UFC 202. But, his tendency to counter his opponent's strikes may not fare well against Floyd Mayweather.

Floyd Mayweather is known as one of the best defensive technical boxers in the history of the sport. He does not initiate the punches. He also looks to counter his opponent's strikes much like McGregor. Unlike McGregor, Mayweather lands enough punches to win him rounds on the scorecard. Whereas, McGregor tries to finish the fight with his powerful left hand. That means that Conor McGregor is most likely going to have to initiate the punching. Which means that McGregor’s cardio and conditioning in the later rounds could be severely affected. Whereas, Mayweather’s cardio and conditioning might not be. Not to mention, since Mayweather is a superb defensive boxer and talented counter striker, McGregor’s efforts at initiating the punches could all be for not. So, in other words, if McGregor has any chance at winning this fight, he is going to have to finish it early, because the longer the fight lingers on, the more the fight favours Floyd Mayweather.

I think another big piece to the puzzle of determining if McGregor has a chance of beating Mayweather and winning the fight, is how he is handling the adjustment from mixed martial arts to boxing. McGregor only got his boxing license not to long ago, and he has only been seriously training boxing for under six months-ish. Yes, he was an amateur boxer and he does have past experience, but that doesn't compare to Floyd Mayweather’s track record in boxing. So, the transition will play a huge part in determining McGregor’s chances at beating undefeated (49-0) Floyd Mayweather. There's no way to gage how that transition is going to go until they fight. Let it also be known, that boxing and mixed martial arts are vastly different. Boxing is an art form. And boxers train their whole lives to master it. It's hard to say that a guy like McGregor is going to come in and ‘rule boxing’ and ‘make boxing his bitch’. In reality, it's like he's a Joe Blow coming in to fight Mike Tyson in his prime. It's a tall task, even if McGregor is one of the best fighters in mixed martial arts. (Which I beg to differ, but that's just like my opinion, man).

I think the thing that gives people hard-ons for Conor McGregor is the guy’s confidence. You gotta think that McGregor knows that he has a tall mountain to climb to beat Mayweather. Mayweather has all the advantages. Mayweather is an undefeated boxing vet. He has beaten many boxers that McGregor’s boxing style will be similar to. Mayweather has never been knocked out, not even by Oscar De La Hoya or Manny Pacquiao. Mayweather has better conditioning and cardio. Mayweather has gone the distance several times. The only thing that McGregor is going to have going for him is that he will be fighting with an unorthodox boxing style. (Usually in boxing there's a formula that fighters have. For example, left jab, right jab, left hook, finished off with a left uppercut. McGregor will most likely bring his mixed martial arts striking style and try to overwhelm Mayweather with that). But still this loveable Irish fucker still thinks he has a chance. In reality, he was the underdog when he fought Jose Aldo, and McGregor knocked him out in 13 seconds of the first round. So, it's not like he hasn't overcome the odds before, but the big difference between that fight and this fight is that McGregor was an experienced martial artist, whereas he is not an experienced boxer.

And although, McGregor's lines have gone down (in the eyes of the gambler) and up (in his perspective) from +575 to +350 to +300 in the last two months, he still is the massive underdog. In reality and on paper. Mayweather is still a -400 favourite. It's gone down a lot from -650, but he's still a heavy favourite. (A Money Line is a type of betting line which lays out the amount a player must wager in order to win $100.00, or the amount the player wins on a wager of $100.00. There is no point spread or handicap in this line). Even though more of the sharps are putting their fate into McGregor, the vast majority of gamblers are still putting their money on Mayweather. (A ‘sharp’ is someone who is a true handicapper. For starters, a casino or bookmaker can separate the squares from the sharps just by who is placing the wager. A sharp uses gambling as a primary source of income and rarely will place his bet personally. He or she will use a bookie).

So, what do I have to say in all of this? Well, this is what I'm going to leave you guys and gals with… I think McGregor has a fighter’s chance. Odds are Mayweather will probably win the fight, but you never know what can happen. It's a 50/50 chance that McGregor can win. At the end of the day, the odds go out the door when those two step into the ring. Hey, if Jeff Horn, who was a school teacher, can beat one of the best boxers in the world, that being Manny Pacquiao… who says Conor McGregor can't beat Floyd Mayweather?

How would I bet this fight? If you are okay with losing $100, I would say put it on McGregor. Anything can happen, per say. And if McGregor does shock the world and beat Mayweather, you'll be $300 bucks richer. I'd put money on Mayweather, but you'd have to bet a few grand to make it worthwhile. Put it this way, you'd have to bet $900 to make $300, but if Mayweather does easily beat McGregor like many of the experts say he can, that bet might be worth it!

Anyhow, keep tuned to this blog for my OFFICIAL fight winner prediction, and stay tuned to my podcast for more #MayMac talk!

The Real Reasons Why Mayweather vs. McGregor Will Be The Biggest Fight In Combat Sports History

The unofficial fight poster

Mayweather vs. McGregor, the biggest event in combat sports history! But is it really? Hell no, fam! The question begs why is this fight so big? Well, in today’s blog, I’m going to present my ideas to why this fight has the ‘most watched combat sports event in history’ potential! So sit back and relax! This is your FIRST installment of This Ain’t No Thrilla In Manila - The MayMac Blog. Shit is about to get real!

After you are finished reading the blog, don’t be afraid to check out the podcast that goes hand-in-hand with this enchanted piece of writing!

So, everybody likes a good build up to a fight or just anything exciting in general. And if that’s the case, that’s one thing this fight has had so far, is a good build up! You got two of the best trash talkers in the business promoting this fight. And that in itself is a blessing to the promoters (IE. Showtime) because it makes their job of advertising for the fight a hell of a lot easier. The MayMac press tour that Showtime had was one of the best things I have seen in awhile when it comes to hyping a fight. It was free, it was entertaining and on top of all of that, there were a lot of quotable sound bites. For example, when McGregor said, “Why does Floyd have a school bag, when he can’t even read?” That was my personal favourite. I think if you were a fight fan and you were not already on the MayMac hype train, after the conclusion of that tour, I can almost guarantee you that you bought into what they were selling. For the casual sports fans, their trash talking gave you a reason to want to watch the fight. And for the haters, it gave them one more reason to stream the fight. Like honestly, how could you not like the build up? Yes, most of it's just a show… but the last time I checked, when Hulk Hogan beat (AND body-slammed) Andre The Giant at WrestleMania 3, it was one of the most watched events in history up to that point in time… AND it was just a show. So, in actuality, why should this fight be any different? Yes, the fight itself, at best, will be intriguing. And I agree with those that say GGG vs. Canelo will blow this fight out of the water. But at the same time, MayMac has that ‘WOW’ factor to the casuals that most other fights don’t have. And that’s enough to get suckers like you and I, to cough up $99.99 to watch it. I’m not going to say don’t believe the hype, but I will say this; don’t expect an Ali vs. Frazier boxing match.

Conor trying to get under Floyd Mayweather's skin at the London press conference on The MayMac Tour

Now another reason why I think this fight is so big is because of the story that it tells. Conor Mcgregor is a guy that came from poverty in Ireland, to living life large. He started from rock bottom and now he’s on top of the mountain. Conor, did not only beat one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in MMA history, that being Jose Aldo, but he knocked him out in thirteen seconds to win the UFC Featherweight Championship of The World! And on top of that, McGregor is the first fighter in UFC history to hold two championship belt simultaneously! Plus, McGregor is an entertaining fighter, that is humble in victory and defeat! He faces challenges head on, and he isn’t afraid to speak his mind. He is an overall likeable guy. He’s the perfect definition of a ‘face’, someone who is over with the crowd. Whereas, Floyd “Money” Mayweather may be undefeated at 49-0 (not counting the six women he has beat. OH YES, I JUST WENT THERE), but he is a boring defensive boxer that fights to win on the scorecards and not to finish the fight. He’s the farthest thing from humble. He is disrespectful. Plus, as a person, how can you like this guy? He beats women and does not give two shits about it. He brags about the endless amounts of money he has. He does things to put others down. He fights dirty. And on top of all of that, this guy has the balls to avoid paying his taxes WITH ALL THE FUCKING MONEY HE HAS! It’s easy not to like Floyd. So, at the end of the day, this fight is basically a case of good versus evil. Floyd Mayweather is the heel, the evil one, the bad guy. Conor McGregor is the face, the good guy. Or in wrestling terms, Floyd is ‘The Bad Guy’ Razor Ramon, and Conor is the good guy, ‘The Heartbreak Kid’ Shawn Michaels. And that storyline alone, can make people want to buy this fight. The fact that Conor even has a chance to win this fight makes it worth watching!

A play-by-play of Conor McGregor's stunning knockout of one of MMA's pound-for-pound bests, Jose Aldo

Finally, I think the biggest reason why this fight is going to sell is because everyone, and I mean everyone, can and WILL have the tendency to relate themselves to Conor McGregor. You see, Conor McGregor is the product of ‘The American Dream’ or just that overall idea that no matter what your current situation is, you can achieve greatness. That’s the reason why many of our ancestors decided to move to Canada or the USA, is to chase ‘The American Dream’. To make a better life for themselves and their families. So, although, most people know that McGregor’s odds of beating Floyd “Money” Mayweather are slim, they still hang on to the slim hopes of him winning, because, at the end of the day, most people think if Conor can beat the odds and defeat Floyd, why can’t I do the same type of thing with my life. You see, like it or not, Conor represents hope to the people that have none. Let’s not kid ourselves we all aspire to one day be in a situation like Conor is in, where no matter what, you and your family are set for life. Floyd “Money” Mayweather represents everything we collectively hate as a society. So who better then Conor McGregor to knock Mayweather out, and bury everything we hate collectively as a society? Good triumphs while evil dwells. You can’t write much of a better story than that folks!

Conor McGregor after beating Eddie Alvarez to become the FIRST fighter in UFC to hold TWO titles simultaneously! 

In the end, I’m not trying to hype this fight. Personally, I think this fight is going to suck more balls then Eric Cartman’s mom on a Friday night, but that doesn’t mean I won’t watch it. I’m just here to give you, the people, a better idea why this fight is going to be so goddamn big. If Conor manages to KO Mayweather ‘inside of four rounds’ like he says he will, everybody will be satisfied and good will overcome evil, just like the people want it. Joe Rogan said it best, “If Conor knocks Floyd out, Conor is going to be a motherfucking folk hero for years to come!” And who doesn’t like a good folk hero?